LeeCoppock.com

The 43-day federal government shutdown last fall led to delays in the release of 2025 GDP data until just today. And that shutdown also affected GDP.

Real GDP grew at just 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Part of the reason why growth was because government spending was much lower due to the shutdown. The figure below shows how each of the for spending categories (consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports) contributed to the 1.4% fourth quarter growth rate.

You can see that the G component reduced GDP growth by almost an entire percentage point.

For the entire year 2025, this GDP report estimates that real GDP growth was just 2.2 percent, the slowest rate since 2020. Keep in mind, this is just the first estimate, which the BEA calls the “Advance Estimate.” It will likely change as more data becomes available.