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Category: GDP

  • GDP Third Quarter 2015

    The latest GDP release from the BEA estimates that U.S.real GDP grew at 1.5% in the third quarter of 2015.  This is just a mediocre growth rate but revisions to second quarter data have now increased the final growth estimate to a robust 3.9 percent.   Recall that inventory is part of investment expenditures in…

  • Ho-Hum Growth in Second Quarter

    Today, the BEA released their  first (Advance) GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2015, estimating real GDP growth of 2.3%.  These figures will be revised over the next few months, but for now, they indicate positive but pedestrian growth below the long-run historical average of 3%.  The graph below shows quarterly real GDP growth…

  • GDP Down in First Quarter (Again)

    Real GDP in the U.S. fell by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2015, according to the latest report from the BEA.  The graph below shows growth by quarters since the beginning of 2005. It seems reasonable to ask: what is wrong with the first quarter?  After all, since 2010, there have only been three…

  • 2014 Exits Like a Lamb

    Real GDP grew at a mediocre 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2014, according to the latest release from the BEA.   Keep in mind, this is the first estimate of real output for last quarter and subsequent revisions have been significant recently.  However, if this estimate holds up, it means that 2014 ended on a…

  • Sex, Drugs and GDP in Europe

    In September,  Eurostat waved a magic wand and increased the GDP in the European Union by 3.53 percent overnight. That is a full year's worth of very solid growth.  But it didn't make Europeans any wealthier because it was actually just due to a new definition of the way GDP is counted.  Eurostat (the economic…

  • GDP Growth Estimate Increases

    With today's GDP data release, the BEA increased their estimate of real GDP growth in the third quarter today to 3.9 percent (up from th earlier estimate of 3.5%). This, combined with the 4.6% growth from the second quarter, means the U.S. economy experienced solid and above normal growth through the middle of 2014.  The…

  • Growth Continues in Third Quarter

     Real GDP grew 3.5% in the third quarter, according to the advance estimate released by the BEA.   A big piece of the growth came from net exports (exports minus imports).  Exports rose by 7.8% and imports fell by 2.4%.  Since net exports makes up a very small piece of total GDP, this contributed 1.3%…

  • Second Quarter Strongest since 2006

    The BEA now estimates that real GDP grew by 4.6% in the second quarter. This revision means that the most recent quarter saw the fastest real GDP growth since 2006. That's a long time.  Before we get too excited, let's remember that this comes on the heels of negative growth in the first quarter. The…

  • Solid Growth in Second Quarter

    The second estimate of real GDP growth from the BEA and it confirms a strong rate of 4.2 percent. The strong second quarter reinforces my view that the first quarter contraction (-2.1%) was largely due to a short run supply shock.  It seems like a long time ago now, but you probably remember just how…

  • Weak First Quarter

    I'll post more on this later, but I wanted to point out that the new GDP report is available. It shows that the first quarter of 2014 was particularly weak, with growth of just 0.1%. Remember, this is the first estimate and these have recently been adjusted upward.  Even so, nobody expected such a weak report.…