Everybody wants to talk about an impending recession but let's take a moment to appreciate the longest expansion in U.S. history.  The first estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2019 is 1.9%.  This means the current expansion, which began in July 2009, is now marching into its eleventh year.  The graph…

Month-over-month changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) have been nearly zero for much of the past year.  The graph below shows monthly inflation over the past two years.  In September, the CPI rose just 0.0226 percent – that's pretty much "zero." These low numbers astonish many people who see grocery prices or college tuition…

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows very little estimated inflation  – just 0.1 percent in August.  Over the past year, the CPI increased just 1.76 percent, in line with recent history of 2% or less.   But remember that the CPI is an aggregate statistic and includes…

The unemployment rate remained at the historically low 3.7 percent in August, according to the jobs report released today by the BLS.   This good news is somewhat dampened by the apparent slowing of private sector hiring.  While 130,000 new jobs were added in August (by this first estimate), part of this is due to temporary…

Folks, the economy may be slowing, but we are now actually working on the longest U.S. economic expansion on record.  It has literally been a decade since the last recession.  To be fair, the effects of that recession (the "Great Recession") lingered long after it was officially over.  But strictly speaking, the last recession finished…

This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Employment Situation Report for March. After the huge increase in nonfarm payroll employment in February (+326K), the economy added only 103,000 jobs this past month. Despite that, the unemployment rate remained at 4.1% for the sixth straight month. Despite the apparently tight labor market, there is…

According to the Employment Situation Report released by the BLS this morning, unemployment for the month of October was at 4.1%, the lowest since December 2000. The good news was accompanied by revisions in the number of payroll employees for the past two months which means that the US has had positive job gains for…

This morning the BLS released its monthly Employment Situation Summary, the first jobs report of this academic year.  These reports are released on the first Friday of each month and they report U.S. labor market data for the previous month.  During this year, we will follow monitor at least three data series from these reports. …

Real GDP growth is finally ticking up toward the long run average again.  The BEA released it's first (Advance) GDP estimate for the third quarter.  The estimate of real GDP growth came in at 2.9%, which is the highest level in two full years but still below a long run (50-year) average of 3 percent. …

Last Friday, the BLS released their latest jobs report which includes estimates of the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate (LFPR) for September.  The unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 5.0 percent which is essentially where it has been for the past year.  Nonfarm payroll employment, the most closely watched aggregate jobs figure, rose…